Josh Cochran July 15, 2016 · On another issue that Bagaria takes up — competing approaches to determining fair value for the high-yield market as a whole — there is room for people of good faith to differ. The author writes that multivariate econometric models “can be helpful” but that they “can also seem like black-box forecasting, as it’s sometimes unclear how all the inputs come together to derive estimates.” Here I must declare an interest: I introduced this approach two decades ago and regularly update a multivariate model, the methodology of which is fully disclosed. Bagaria prefers the breakeven method, which defines the fair value of spreads versus Treasuries as Expected default rate – Recovery rate on defaulted debt + Illiquidity premium. As he acknowledges, however, the last term in that formula varies widely with market conditions, leading him to conclude that the breakeven method is effective only “in environments where the high yield market is properly functioning and not experiencing strain or risk aversion.” Yet it is precisely when extreme market conditions depress prices below their intrinsic worth that a valuation model can be most useful.
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All of these factors combined are why many people consider money market accounts as a type of “savings account on steroids.” While there isn’t much risk involved, you can potentially secure a higher rate of return.
One-year Treasury bill, 0.88% days monitered: 23 At a minimum, you should invest at least to the level of your employer’s matching contribution. In 2014, you can contribute up to $17,500 (or $23,000 if you’re 50 or older), with a maximum contribution of $52,000 (including the combination of your contribution and that of your employer). Most people find it easiest to break annual contributions into equal parts deducted each pay period. For instance, if you want to contribute $12,000 a year, you would request to have $1,000 deducted from your salary each month.
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